WN 864 · BUR → LAS

departs 10:34 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ 10am departures from BUR are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,583 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 864 · BUR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?