WN 864 · LAS → PHX

departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 1:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±13 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 864 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?