Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 949 · BWI → AUS
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 10:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 0.866667 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip 0.35 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.