Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
Y4 1896 · SLC → GDL
departs 4:33 PM MT · arrives 8:16 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12
Wed 10/14 8%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from SLC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.79 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.