YV 6190 · DTW → IAD

departs 2:41 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6190 · DTW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?