Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 3301 · EWR → YYZ
departs 1:26 PM ET · arrives 3:17 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 233 ft, visibility down to 0.666667 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.33333 mi Precip 0.14 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.