Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 3490 · IAD → YYZ
departs 12:52 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at IAD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.19 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.