Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 3555 · EWR → YYZ
departs 10:18 AM ET · arrives 12:02 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.13 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.