YX 4350 · JFK → BNA

departs 1:49 PM ET · arrives 3:38 PM CT

Your aircraft is N402YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4712 from BNA: landed 11:39 AM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4350 · JFK → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?