Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 437 · LGA → IND
departs 9:24 AM ET · arrives 11:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.12 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.