Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 4402 · LGA → BOS
departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14 40%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.10 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.