YX 4485 · LGA → RDU

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±11 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

RDU (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4485 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?