Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 4556 · LGA → YYZ
departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 3:02 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.10 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.