YX 4656 · LIT → LGA

departs 8:07 AM CT · arrives 12:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4656 · LIT → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?