Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4666
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 4666 · LGA → RDU
departs 1:43 PM ET · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 29%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 567 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.10 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.