YX 4774 · RDU → LGA

took off 10:47 AM ET · landed 11:55 AM ET (scheduled 8:59 AM ET → 10:42 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from RDU are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4774 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?