YX 5633 · LGA → JAX

took off 9:27 AM ET · landed 11:17 AM ET (scheduled 8:23 AM ET → 11:03 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

JAX (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5633 · LGA → JAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to JAX?