Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 5642 · IND → LGA
departs 2:46 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.