YX 5651 · ORF → LGA

departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5651 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?