Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
YX 5786 · PIT → LGA
departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.