YX 5853 · LGA → BOS

took off 10:43 AM ET · landed 11:22 AM ET (scheduled 9:08 AM ET → 10:23 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5853 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?