Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 5873 · BOS → LGA
departs 9:14 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.