Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 2609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
5D 2609 · DTW → QRO
departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 11:20 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at QRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to QRO?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
5D's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
QRO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.