Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 4904 · LGA → DSM

departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4904 · LGA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?