Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5010 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 5010 · LGA → BGR

departs 2:44 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5010 · LGA → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?