Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

9E 5186 · ILM → LGA

departs 11:21 AM ET · arrives 1:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5186 · ILM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?