Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 5186 · LGA → ILM

departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 10:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5186 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?