9E 5187 · LGA → YYZ

departs 7:42 AM ET · arrives 9:11 AM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5187 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?