Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9E 5424 · LGA → ORH

departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 2:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at ORH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORH?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORH that day

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5424 · LGA → ORH

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORH?