Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

9K 186 · BOS → BHB

departs 9:22 AM ET · arrives 10:49 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at BHB more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHB?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BHB that day

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into BHB at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

BHB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 186 · BOS → BHB

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHB?