Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 321 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

9K 321 · BOS → LEB

departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LEB more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEB?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LEB that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 2pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LEB at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

LEB (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 321 · BOS → LEB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEB?