Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

9K 801 · SLK → PBG

departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 9:09 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PBG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PBG?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SLK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PBG that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PBG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SLK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.90 in

PBG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 801 · SLK → PBG

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBG?