Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
9X 396 · BFD → IAD
departs 2:19 PM ET · arrives 3:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BFD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BFD (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.