Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1059 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1059 · AUS → PHX

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1059 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?