Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1253 · ORD → SFO

departs 3:18 PM CT · arrives 5:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1253 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?