Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 12 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 12 · LAX → BOS

departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 12 · LAX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?