Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1399 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1399 · PHX → CMH

departs 8:57 AM MT · arrives 3:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

CMH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1399 · PHX → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?