Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1424 · PHX → DTW

departs 9:20 AM MT · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DTW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1424 · PHX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?