Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 142 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 142 · JFK → LHR

departs 9:33 AM ET · arrives 9:00 PM BST

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 142 · JFK → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?