Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1528 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1528 · PHL → SFO

departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1528 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?