Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1568 · PHX → LAS

departs 10:15 AM MT · arrives 11:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1568 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?