Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1584 · LAS → DFW

departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 3:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1584 · LAS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?