Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1691 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1691 · ORD → EWR

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1691 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?