Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 179 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 179 · JFK → SFO

departs 8:29 AM ET · arrives 11:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8am departures from JFK are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 179 · JFK → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?