Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:38 AM CT · arrives 8:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?