Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1871 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1871 · SLC → DFW

departs 2:06 PM MT · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SLC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.82 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1871 · SLC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?