Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2081 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2081 · DFW → SMF

departs 8:19 AM CT · arrives 10:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2081 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?