Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2225 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 2225 · GEG → PHX

departs 6:30 AM PT · arrives 9:16 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from GEG are usually not late

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2225 · GEG → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?