AA 2236 · PHL → RSW

departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 11:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2236 · PHL → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?