Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

departs 6:48 PM CT · arrives 10:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?